GEORGE HERBERT BUSH

George_H._W._Bush_President_of_the_United_States_1989_official_portraitIl miglior possibile candidato dai tempi di John Quincy Adams

1 La prima campagna per White House: il contesto e gli esiti

1979, la presidenza Carter è in gravissime difficoltà.

L’ex governatore della Georgia, arrivato a White House a seguito dell’affermazione di tre anni prima quando aveva sconfitto il repubblicano Gerald Ford, dovendosi confrontare in specie con gli accadimenti iraniani (caduta ed esilio dello Scià Reza Pahlavi, presa del potere da parte di Ruhollah Khomeini, assalto dei ‘giovani rivoluzionari’ all’ambasciata americana e cattura dei diplomatici e degli addetti da quel momento in poi ostaggi in mani non certamente amiche), si appresta ad affrontare l’anno elettorale, il 1980, con pochissime possibilità di ottenere il rinnovo del mandato.

E’ talmente debole che – fatto davvero raro dato che normalmente il capo dello Stato uscente che si ripropone non ha avversari se non di facciata nel proprio partito – qualcuno in campo democratico pensa sia possibile strappargli la nomination.

Si tratta del senatore Ted Kennedy, di gran nome e resuscitato dopo Chappaquiddick.

L’evidente difficoltà rianima il campo repubblicano (non va dimenticato che lo ‘Scandalo Watergate’ ancora pesava e non poco sul groppone GOP), campo nel quale la designazione a sfidante di Jimmy Carter sarà contesa nelle primarie e nei caucus tra l’ex governatore della California Ronald Reagan, George Herbert Bush e il congressista John B. Anderson.

Va ricordato che nella storia dei confronti tra democratici e repubblicani nelle elezioni per la Casa Bianca fino al 1980 l’unico tra i primi a non avere ottenuto, quando richiesto, un secondo quadriennio (o più, guardando a Franklin Delano Roosevelt) era stato Grover Cleveland, vittorioso nel 1894, peraltro sconfitto per voti elettorali e non per voti popolari nel 1888 e comunque capace di rientrare a White House dopo un intervallo di quattro anni (campagna del 1892), un exploit assolutamente straordinario.

Non così, per inciso e sempre fino al 1980, tra i repubblicani: Benjamin Harrison nel predetto 1892, William Taft nel 1912, Herbert Hoover nel 1932, il citato Gerald Ford nel 1976 non erano riusciti a restare sullo scranno presidenziale.

La contesa Carter/Kennedy, per quanto articolata, si risolve – consacrato l’esito con rassegnazione nella convention agostana a New York – a favore del presidente che riesce a conquistare un importante e sufficiente numero di delegati all’inizio della lunga corsa, prima che il clamoroso fallimento del tentativo di liberare gli ostaggi di Teheran ne mini ancora di più la credibilità.

Tra i repubblicani, in secondo piano Anderson che dipoi correrà per White House da indipendente, in luglio a Detroit, vendicandosi della sconfitta di quattro anni prima quando il partito gli aveva preferito l’uscente Ford, si impone Reagan.

Con lui, a formare un ticket decisamente robusto, l’allora perdente in sede di primarie e caucus George Herbert Bush.

Il trionfo novembrino porterà l’ex attore ad occupare lo scranno presidenziale per i successivi otto anni visto che nel 1984, in un momento di particolare spolvero USA, sarà confermato sbaragliando l’ex vice di Carter Walter Mondale.

Al suo fianco, “schivo” come lo definisce Maldwyn Jones, per entrambi i mandati, in attesa di una possibile, anzi probabile, successione, appunto G.H.Bush.

2 George Herbert Bush: il miglior possibile candidato dai tempi di John Quincy Adams 

George Herbert Bush, guardando alla carriera politica, agli incarichi ricoperti, ai successi conseguiti, alle attività in campo economico nonché alla famiglia (suo padre Prescott era stato un importante senatore) si proponeva indubbiamente come il miglior possibile candidato a White House della storia dai tempi di John Quincy Adams (in carica dal 1825 al 1829).

Il futuro quarantunesimo presidente aveva difatti illustrato le proprie capacità in una miriade di campi.

Giovanissimo ed eroico volontario nella seconda guerra mondiale, divenne milionario prima dei quarant’anni lavorando nei petroli.

Giustamente apprezzato da Richard Nixon, fu ambasciatore USA all’ONU, presidente del partito ovviamente repubblicano, capo dell’ufficio diplomatico nella Cina Popolare, direttore della CIA…

Allorquando, trascorsi due quadrienni come vice di Reagan, si affermò nel 1988 cosa ci si poteva aspettare se non una presidenza tra le più incisive e ricche di risultati?

3 La strana campagna elettorale del 1988

Appoggiato senza se e senza ma da Ronald Reagan, George Herbert Bush pareva non dovesse avere problemi nell’ambito del GOP per ottenere la nomination.

Così, per il vero, almeno agli inizi non fu visto che, a parte il predicatore battista Pat Robertson, dovette confrontarsi col leader della minoranza repubblicana al senato Bob Dole (che sarà in seguito sfortunato avversario di Bill Clinton nel 1996), un coriaceo competitore.

Vinte però e infine le ultime primarie, Bush ottenne la prescritta consacrazione, la nomination, nel mese di agosto in quel di New Orleans.

Nel campo avverso, eliminato a causa di uno scandalo sessuale Gary Hart, un ex senatore che pareva essere destinato a prevalere nel partito dell’asino, il confronto fu ristretto a Michael Dukakis e al reverendo nero Jesse Jackson.

Dukakis, ex governatore del Massachusetts, infine prevalse e partì nella sfida finale con una corsa di testa tanto che a luglio i sondaggi lo davano vincente con addirittura diciassette punti di vantaggio.

Nei mesi seguenti – fu quella una campagna presidenziale tra le peggiori tanto le due parti pensarono a denigrare il candidato rivale piuttosto che ad esporre i propri rispettivi programmi – la situazione per il politico di origini greche andò sempre più peggiorando tanto che a ottobre i medesimi rilevamenti lo davano indietro di dieci lunghezze.

A novembre, George Herbert Bush vinse facilmente: trentotto Stati e quattrocentoventisei voti elettorali per lui contro i restanti Stati e il Distretto di Columbia per totali centododici delegati a favore del rivale.

In cotal modo, G.H.Bush fu il primo vice presidente ad approdare direttamente alla Casa Bianca dopo Martin Van Buren che ci era riuscito nel lontanissimo 1836.

Richard Nixon era diventato presidente nel 1968 al suo secondo tentativo avendo fallito l’elezione diretta nel 1960 subito dopo avere esercitato la vice presidenza.

Era stato sconfitto nell’occasione da John Kennedy.

4 La presidenza di G.H.Bush

I quattro anni – dal 20 gennaio 1989 al 20 gennaio 1993 – della presidenza di George Herbert Bush restano tra i più tumultuosi e rivoluzionari di sempre.

Questo non certamente in conseguenza del suo operato.

Fatto è che in quel periodo le trasformazioni sulla scena internazionale sono millanta.

Impossibile stilarne l’elenco completo ma necessario citare le più importanti:

caduta del Muro di Berlino e successiva dissoluzione dell’Unione Sovietica per cominciare;

fine della Guerra Fredda e della contrapposizione a livello planetario delle due superpotenze;

scioglimento del Patto di Varsavia;

caduta in diverse parti del mondo di regimi autoritari: Nicaragua, Cile, Sudafrica, per dire;

conflitti tra i Paesi in precedenza facenti parte della Jugoslavia;

problemi gravi in diversi Paesi dell’America Latina;

senza dimenticare ovviamente Tienanmen e i conseguenti deterioramenti dei rapporti con la Cina.

Per quanto Bush fosse decisamente esperto in politica internazionale, la sua azione fu poco incisiva, spesso esitante, di sovente inconcludente.

Peraltro, buoni invece i rapporti instaurati con Michail Gorbaciov e con Boris Eltsin la qual cosa procurò tra le parti la firma di trattati e tagli alle imponenti spese militari.

A portare alle stelle il gradimento di George Herbert Bush tra i cittadini USA fu però infine la Guerra del Golfo.

Dapprima voluta da tutti, poi per qualche tempo indesiderata e temuta, poi ancora discussa, alla fine, quando vinta e avanti che velocissimamente il tripudio calasse, osannata, la Guerra combattuta contro l’Iraq di Saddam Hussein per liberare l’invaso Kuwait vide il presidente ottenere nel marzo 1991 addirittura l’ottantanove per cento dei consensi tra gli americani.

Mancavano allora un anno e molti mesi alle elezioni e i successivi accadimenti, in particolare economici, si incaricarono di far scendere quel gradimento – nel settembre 1992, a due mesi scarsi dal voto – al trentadue per cento.

Per quanto il presidente si fosse dato da fare, non gli riuscì, appunto nel campo dell’economia, di affrontare e sconfiggere la recessione che colpì il Paese America nell’estate del 1990.

Già in precedenza, comunque, il presidente non aveva potuto mantenere la principale promessa fatta nel 1988 agli elettori e aveva aumentato le tasse.

Dappoiché, poi, le difficoltà tendono ad accumularsi, nell’ultimo periodo del mandato insorsero altresì problemi di carattere razziale (e cito solo la rivolta a Los Angeles conseguente all’episodio Rodney King).

 

5 La campagna elettorale del 1992

Una di bel nuovo strana campagna elettorale quella successiva del 1992.

Strana in primo luogo per il fatto che in campo democratico, ritenendo del tutto erroneamente Bush imbattibile, i big non si presentarono al via della corsa caucus/primarie.

In secondo luogo perché, per quanto facilmente il presidente uscente avesse ottenuto la nuova nomination, lo svolgimento della convention nella quale fu consacrato spostò troppo a destra il GOP.

In terzo luogo, per l’apparire sulla scena di un terzo candidato non di poco conto: il miliardario texano Ross Perot il quale, da indipendente, catturerà infine oltre diciannove milioni di voti (e nessun delegato non essendo riuscito a prevalere in alcuno degli Stati), la maggior parte dei quali, a mio modo di vedere, sottratti a Bush.

Infine, per la comparsa in parte democratica di un vero ‘cavallo di razza’ quale si rivelerà essere l’ex governatore dell’Arkansas Bill Clinton, tanto incredibilmente capace sul piano della cattura dei voti da sopravvivere ad ogni attacco compresi quelli riguardanti i suoi disinvolti atteggiamenti sessuali.

Il primo martedì dopo il primo lunedì di novembre di quel 1992, Clinton vinse in trentadue Stati più il Distretto di Columbia per un totale di trecentosettanta delegati acquisiti.

George Herbert Bush uscì quindi malinconicamente di scena tenendo per sé diciotto Stati e solo centosessantotto voti elettorali.

6 Conclusioni

Ho paragonato, quanto a preparazione e curricula, George Herbert Bush a John Quincy Adams.

Incredibilmente, anche il secondo Adams – figlio di un presidente (John Adams, in carica dal 1797 al 1801) nel mentre Herbert è padre di un suo successore (George Walker Bush, in sella da 2001 al 2009) – non regnò che un solo mandato e con risultati altrettanto poco brillanti.

Considerato che anche Herbert Hoover, il presidente demolito da F.D.Roosevelt nel 1932 dopo un solo quadriennio di fallimentare potere, era preparatissimo e per ciò stesso atteso e che, di contro, per fare qualche esempio, 1 Harry Truman appariva impresentabile e fu grande, 2 Lyndon Johnson era rozzo e infantile e fu eccezionale, 3 lo stesso Ronald Reagan non dava affidamento e segnò un’epoca, converrà forse per il futuro augurarsi presidenti americani in partenza di scarsa levatura, di poca esperienza, di media cultura ma una volta eletti in grado di amministrare gli USA al meglio.

Soprattutto, ricordando i generali desiderati da Napoleone, fortunati!!!

Da: www.dissensiediscordanze.it

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  7. giorgio castriota santa maria bella
    20 dicembre 2014 at 21:33

    Forse è stato sfortunato ma è certo che la sua decisione d’intervenire in Iraq fu improvvida ed è in parte all’origine del marasma in corso in Medio Oriente. di cui noi Europei siamo le vittime principali.

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