Le origini della crisi finanziaria

E’ ormai assodato che la terribile crisi finanziaria, prima, economica poi, che ancora incide sulla carne di centinaia di milioni di persone, è sorta a Wall Street in seguito alle insipienti politiche di Bush junior ed alle carenze dei vari organi di controllo del sistema creditizio e della Borsa americani e si è poi diffusa nel mondo con il contributo dei “cugini“ della City e degli organismi di controllo del Regno Unito.

Inoltre è utile ricordare un grave precedente in cui la responsabilità è attribuibile, senza ombra di dubbio, ad uomini di primo piano della finanza americana e ad illustri economisti statunitensi.

Nel 1994 J.Meriwether, già alto dirigente della Salomon Brothers, fondò il “Long Term Capital Management” (L.T.C.M), un fondo speculativo nel cui Consiglio sedettero, oltre che dirigenti provenienti anch’essi dalla Salomon Brothers, accademici di primo piano quali :

E.Rosenfeld (Harvard Business School ),W.Krasken (Harvard Business School),Robert C.Merton (Università di Harvard),Myron Scholes (Università di Stanford ),W.David Mullins junior (docente all’Università di Harvard , già membro del Consiglio della Federal Reserve e sottosegretario al Tesoro con competenza per la finanza nazionale durante la presidenza di Bush junior). Nel 1997 i professori Merton e Scholes vennero insigniti del premio Nobel per l’economia per aver ideato il metodo per determinare il valore dei derivati ,strumento evidentemente di non comune efficacia come ha dimostrato la recente gravissima crisi.

Orbene l’attività del fondo L.T.C.M, che compiva, per lo più operazioni di arbitraggio, si basava sui modelli matematici creati dai precitati prof. Merton e Scholes.

Il L.T.C.M. gestì un capitale di 4 miliardi di dollari, ma, attraverso l’utilizzo di leve finanziarie,  arrivò ad avere un’esposizione di ben 1.200 miliardi di dollari.

Dopo gli iniziali successi il grande utilizzo della leva finanziaria e la crisi della Russia provocarono nel 1998 (cioè appena 4 anni dopo la costituzione) il collasso del fondo.

Per evitare il peggio dovette, more solito, intervenire la F.E.D.

Altri fondi utilizzarono in quel periodo la stessa metodologia con gli stessi esiti negativi anche se di minore ampiezza.

“Last but not least”, come ha segnalato S.Righi in un articolo sul “Corriere dell’Economia“ dell’11 ottobre u.s, illustri docenti come Geert Rouwenhorst e Robert Schiller (entrambi dell’Università di Yale ed in odore di premio Nobel), Jeremy Siegel (Wharton School), Andrew Lo (Massachusset Institute of Technology) ed altri, forti delle loro conoscenze teoriche e, verosimilmente, della loro rete di relazioni, hanno creato (o fornito i modelli matematici) i c.d.”E.T.F.” (Exchange – traded Fund), fondi che replicano in maniera non attiva ovvero più o meno fedelmente un indice sottostante (il c.d. bench mark). Si va dall’indice Standard and Poor’s a quello della Borsa di Milano. Quando uno dei componenti il Bench mark viene sostituito anche la corrispondente attività finanziaria all’interno del fondo viene rimpiazzata.
Se l’indice guadagna anche il fondo guadagna. Se perde anche il fondo perde.

Lusinghieri – si fa per dire – sono stati i risultati ottenuti da detti fondi:

l’E.T.F., basato sul sistema elaborato dal prof. Siege, che ha come riferimento l’indice Standard and Poor’s, ha, nell’ultimo triennio, accusato perdite di oltre l’8% ; un po’ meglio sono andati – per così dire – nello stesso arco di tempo il fondo S.P.D.R. che ha perso il 6,7 % ed il “i-Shares Russell“ le cui perdite sono state solo del 6,3 %.


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